TovoData Mortgage Demand Index Report 4th Quarter 2020

  

The TovoData MDI serves as a predictive indicator for the anticipated concentration of closed mortgages across states in the next quarter.

An index value of:

100 means mortgage demand in a state is the same as the nation during the quarter.

>100 means mortgage demand in a state is stronger than the nation during the quarter.

Methodology

The predictive mortgage demand relative to existing housing inventory is measured using iLeads.com tracked demand based on consumer mortgage Internet-based inquiries for mortgages and US Census Bureau data on the count and value of owner-occupied homes with an existing mortgage. iLeads.com tracked demand for mortgages in one quarter are strong predictors of new, closed mortgages in the following quarter. The demand for mortgages can be influenced by economic factors such as mortgage rates, home prices, and job growth. Tracked demand captures the real-time interest in obtaining a mortgage, reflecting the combined effect of economic conditions on mortgage demand.

A TovoData study finds that tracked demand based on consumer intent mortgage leads in one quarter can explain 80% — or four-fifths — of changes in new mortgage activity for the following quarter. Consumer mortgage demand is analyzed as a share of owner-occupied homes with an existing mortgage to show concentration to only the most relevant subset of housing stock. Housing counts and values for this subset of housing by state are used to balance the results, preventing skews toward states with lower counts and /or median values. The tracked demand count as a share of stock and tracked valuations of mortgage demand as a share of value are combined to calculate the index.

TovoData MDI The fourth quarter 2020 TovoData MDI results show strong mortgage demand throughout the southern and western US. These results align with the recent housing demand pattern shifting toward low versus high cost areas and elevated refinance demand due to historically low mortgage rates. In the fourth quarter of 2020, 20 states had a TovoData MDI over 100, reflecting more concentrated activity versus the nation. Four states had an index of 150 or higher — Mississippi (172), Nevada (170), Arkansas (156), and Louisiana (156). Nevada and Florida (135 in fourth quarter 2020) tend to have an index value over 100 across time, given the concentration of second homes and vacation properties in these states.

https://tovodata.com/tovodata-mortage-demand-index-report-4th-quarter-2020/

TovoData Purchase Mortgage Demand Index

The Purchase MDI provides the same measure of mortgage demand concentration by state, but only for purchase mortgages. In the fourth quarter 2020, 19 states had a TovoData Purchase MDI of 100 or more, with five states at 150 or higher. 

The TovoData MDI serves as a predictive indicator for the anticipated concentration of closed mortgages across states in the next quarter.

An index value of:

100 means mortgage demand in a state is the same as the nation during the quarter.

>100 means mortgage demand in a state is stronger than the nation during the quarter.

Methodology

The predictive mortgage demand relative to existing housing inventory is measured using iLeads.com tracked demand based on consumer mortgage Internet-based inquiries for mortgages and US Census Bureau data on the count and value of owner-occupied homes with an existing mortgage. iLeads.com tracked demand for mortgages in one quarter are strong predictors of new, closed mortgages in the following quarter. The demand for mortgages can be influenced by economic factors such as mortgage rates, home prices, and job growth. Tracked demand captures the real-time interest in obtaining a mortgage, reflecting the combined effect of economic conditions on mortgage demand.

A TovoData study finds that tracked demand based on consumer intent mortgage leads in one quarter can explain 80% — or four-fifths — of changes in new mortgage activity for the following quarter. Consumer mortgage demand is analyzed as a share of owner-occupied homes with an existing mortgage to show concentration to only the most relevant subset of housing stock. Housing counts and values for this subset of housing by state are used to balance the results, preventing skews toward states with lower counts and /or median values. The tracked demand count as a share of stock and tracked valuations of mortgage demand as a share of value are combined to calculate the index.

TovoData MDI The fourth quarter 2020 TovoData MDI results show strong mortgage demand throughout the southern and western US. These results align with the recent housing demand pattern shifting toward low versus high cost areas and elevated refinance demand due to historically low mortgage rates. In the fourth quarter of 2020, 20 states had a TovoData MDI over 100, reflecting more concentrated activity versus the nation. Four states had an index of 150 or higher — Mississippi (172), Nevada (170), Arkansas (156), and Louisiana (156). Nevada and Florida (135 in fourth quarter 2020) tend to have an index value over 100 across time, given the concentration of second homes and vacation properties in these states.

https://tovodata.com/tovodata-mortage-demand-index-report-4th-quarter-2020/

TovoData Purchase Mortgage Demand Index

The Purchase MDI provides the same measure of mortgage demand concentration by state, but only for purchase mortgages. In the fourth quarter 2020, 19 states had a TovoData Purchase MDI of 100 or more, with five states at 150 or higher.